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Earthquake Prediction

            Earthquakes are caused by movements of tectonic plates. Why do they move?

            The movements are not consistent but are caused by gravitational variations in pull. There are times when the pull of various gravitational forces, like the moon, sun and planets creates a time when plate movement is more likely.

            Looking at the plates like masses floating on liquid, we can see how they move. The core of the planet, and the liquid moves beneath, creating one gravitational pull. Each plate pulls on other plates, creating another gravitational force. Then we have the moon, the most influential of the gravitational forces. We also have the sun, and to a lesser extent, the various planets and asteroid belts. The small amount of gravity would normally be discounted by physicists as inconsequential, however, those small perturbations in force would increase or decrease the likelihood of an earthquake. With the combination of the gravitational force, plotted in three dimensions we can determine when a plate movement is MOST likely.

            This means that a computer program, with the basics of gravitational forces can spit out times when the gravitational pull is most conducive to earthquakes.

            The easiest way to find high probability time frames is to use existing data (previous earthquakes) to plot previous events. Extrapolating from the previous events, in conjunction with forces of those events, we can look into the future to plot when the same forces will materialize.

            Techtronic movements are chaotic events. This means that over a long time period, an event would be more likely to happen if there hasn’t been an event recently. It can be viewed as a gradually increasing pressure. As the forces cause the plates to pull, the pressure builds until the plate overcomes the friction holding it back. Over a longer time line, a lack of an earthquake would indicate a higher probability of an event.

            Add to that, when a high probability event is becoming more likely, it will also be bigger. That means that as the pressure builds over time, an earthquake becomes more likely. It also means that when the pressure is finally released, the plate will be prepared to shift in one great movement instead of one small one.

            Using such a computerized plot, it would not be difficult to predict earthquakes (to a limited probability).

           

            Alas, I have too many designs on my time than to program such code. However, if there is a government or insurance company interested in buying such a program, be aware that I am available for a price.

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